Most cryptocurrency analysts and investors believe the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is over. While the cycle, which historically saw a bull run peak roughly 12-18 months after the halving, was a reliable pattern for over a decade, major new factors have fundamentally altered the market's dynamics.

Why the Cycle Is Considered Over
The shift away from the predictable 4-year cycle is not due to a single event but a combination of powerful, long-term trends:

The Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The introduction of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in early 2024 was a watershed moment. These funds, managed by major financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, provide a regulated, traditional avenue for institutional investors and wealth managers to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The massive and consistent demand from these ETFs has far outstripped the new supply of Bitcoin, even before the 2024 halving. This institutional capital is less speculative and operates on longer time horizons, which has fundamentally changed the supply-demand balance.

Front-Running the Halving: For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the price hit a new all-time high before the halving event in April 2024. This "front-running" was directly attributed to the unprecedented demand from the new ETFs. In previous cycles, new highs were typically reached more than a year after the halving. This shift is seen as the clearest signal that the old script is no longer valid.

Diminishing Impact of the Halving: As the number of newly mined Bitcoins becomes a smaller and smaller fraction of the total circulating supply (95% of Bitcoin has already been mined), the impact of the halving on the overall market supply is becoming less significant. The flow of demand from institutional players is now the dominant force, dwarfing the effect of the reduced miner rewards.

Market Maturity: The cryptocurrency market is no longer driven solely by retail hype and speculation. It has matured to a point where macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional capital flows are just as influential as the halving. Many analysts believe the era of the dramatic 70%-80% drawdowns (known as "crypto winters") is likely behind us, to be replaced by less volatile market behavior.

What's Next?
While the traditional 4-year cycle may be over, most analysts are still bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. However, the new market dynamics suggest a different type of growth.

A "Sustained Steady Boom": Instead of a single, explosive bull run followed by a harsh bear market, some experts predict a more "sustained steady boom" with less severe pullbacks. This is due to the stabilizing influence of institutional money.

The "Altcoin Season" is Still a Possibility: Despite Bitcoin's new dominance, the historical trend of capital rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins after a major run-up appears to be intact. With Bitcoin dominance falling and the Altcoin Season Index showing positive momentum, many believe a full-scale altcoin season could still be on the horizon.