Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor and CEO of Real Vision, has a nuanced and generally bullish perspective on the impact of the Trump presidency on cryptocurrency. His view is not centered on Trump's personal affinity for crypto but on the potential for a more favorable regulatory environment and the broader macroeconomic factors that a new administration could bring.

Here are the key points of his perspective:

The Pro-Innovation Regulatory Environment
Pal believes that a Trump administration could create a regulatory framework more favorable to decentralized finance (DeFi) and other blockchain innovations. Rather than the strict enforcement-first approach of the past, he anticipates a "pro-innovation" stance that could drive significant growth, particularly within the Ethereum ecosystem. A clearer regulatory framework could enable new financial activities and products on-chain, making the space more attractive to both developers and institutional investors.


Ethereum's Outperformance Potential
While a Trump presidency could be bullish for the entire crypto market, Pal has specifically suggested that Ethereum (ETH) could outperform Bitcoin (BTC). He argues that Ethereum, as the leading platform for DeFi applications, is the primary beneficiary of a favorable regulatory shift. He likens Ethereum's position to that of Microsoft in the early days of web technology, suggesting it is a trusted and established platform that will likely be the primary choice for large-scale financial applications and institutional adoption.



The Role of Global Liquidity
Pal's long-standing macro view is that the primary driver of crypto prices is not political headlines but global liquidity. He argues that Bitcoin's price movements are strongly correlated with the world's broad money supply (M2). While short-term political announcements may cause volatility, the overall trend is dictated by the expansion of global money. If a Trump administration's policies lead to an increase in global liquidity, Pal expects the crypto bull market to continue and potentially extend into 2026.



Potential Risks and Challenges
Despite his bullish outlook, Pal acknowledges that there are potential risks. The administration's focus on tariffs and other protectionist trade policies could create global economic uncertainty, which could weigh on all risk assets, including crypto. He also notes that while the administration is seen as crypto-friendly, there is still a lack of clarity on specific policies, which keeps some investors on edge.

Ultimately, Pal's analysis suggests that a Trump presidency is a net positive for the crypto market, but the true impact will be felt through a combination of favorable regulatory policies and the underlying macroeconomic conditions.

You can find more of Raoul Pal's insights on this topic in a YouTube video discussing How Trump fell in love with crypto. The video is relevant as it provides a look at the political climate that has led to the current crypto-friendly stance.

How Trump fell in love with crypto | Sidebar - YouTube

Washington Post · 1.9K views